Why Mortgage Rates Don't Look Like They're Coming Back Down Any Time Soon

Posted on February 15, 2008Filed under On Inflation Read the complete post or link to it
If you're shopping for mortgages right now, or are in the process of buying a home, this week was not your buddy.
In early-January -- right up until the surprise 0.750% cut to the Fed Funds Rate January 22 -- mortgage rates were the lowest that they'd been in three years.
At the time, market participants were fearful of an economic recession and mortgage rates moved lower with each added ounce of recessionary conviction.
Since that cut, though, and through every week since, the fears of recession are ceding to economic hope and recovery.
As a result, the recession-fueled drop in rates from early-2008 is getting ever-smaller in the economic rearview mirror.
Author's note: Eddie Vedder just doesn't look the same without those long, 1991 grunge rock bangs.
Here's a brief synopsis of what drove rates higher this week:
The economic stimulus package passes
A Federal Reserve president says recession won't happen
The World's most respected investor implied that the mortgage market is not so bad
Then, most importantly, it turns out that the American consumer is still spending after all.
Each of these four points show more economic health than Wall Street had expected. That has forced investors to reshuffle their investment portfolios.
The biggest loser through all of this is the bond market; over the past five days, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have increased by as much as 0.375%.
With more Fed speakers and key inflation/recession data coming down the pipe (or it is pike?) next week, expect the volatility to continue.
When in doubt about mortgage rates, stop shopping and start locking. There is very little good that can come from "waiting out the market".
Saving $50 a month won't change your life but wasting $50 a month will eat at you forever.

Bill Vourazeris
443-618-2880